THE DEBACLE OF THE CONGRESS PARTY

In the month of January 2013 when there were strong rumours of the general elections or something like a mini general elections or what some newspapers called semifinals leading to general elections were going to be held , I wrote the following: (January 24, 2013) 

Congress Party Horoscope
Coming to the horoscope of the Congress Party, it is now passing through the mahadasha of Jupiter and the antardasha of Saturn in whichbetween February and July it will be the pratyantara dasha of Rahu is a clear indication of some tragedy and heart searching. The party is not regaining power in this period or even later when general elections will be declared. It is facing insurmountable problems in the antardasha of Saturn and in the next antardasha of Mercury; it will have to remain context with the role of an opposition party only.

BJP Horoscope
The BJP is now running through the mahadasha of Sun the third lord in the tenth house in exchange with Jupiter the tenth lord. Jupiter the tenth  lord is involved in conjunction with Saturn, Rahu and Mars because of which this party has never been able to form a government without many coalition partners in the period between 1998 and 2004. This party may never be able to form a single party government as the Congress party had for many years since independence of India.

In its Sun dasha it is again nearing the power center in a coalition. It can therefore surmised that in the next coalition it is the NDA government that will be formed at the center with BJP joining it in a prominent way.

(24 January 2013)
INDIAN ELECTIONS 2013 – 2014 KN RAO (26 January 2013, 9:05 PM)
The results of four state elections which have come today (8 December 2013). As was predicted, BJP has entered a more favourable dasha now. It has retained power in M.P. and Chattisgarh , captured power in Rajasthan when it decimated the Congress party in a historic defeat and is the number one party in Delhi but does not have enough majority of its own to form a government.

Some of the newspaper comments are worth reading.

Hindustan Times Sun,08 Dec 2013 - Congress lost all seats Rahul  visited, BJP won in 16 of 20 places where Modi went.
When the Congress party sits down to introspect what led to its crushing defeat in Rajasthan assembly elections, it can ill afford to ignore the fact that the BJP won in 16 of the 20 seats where Narendra Modi addressed pre-poll meetings.

And the more worrying fact is that Congress vice-president and its possible PM candidate Rahul Gandhi failed to make a mark in any of the seven places where he campaigned for Ashok Gehlot.

After Modi was named the saffron party’s PM candidate, Congress has found itself under a lot of pressure to name its candidate for the top post. In the absence of a specific name, Rahul is being viewed as the default PM face of the party.

The BJP was victorious in seven of the eight constituencies where Rahul addressed public  meetings.  Rahul had also addressed a public meeting at Churu, where the election was postponed till December 13 after the death of the BSP candidate.

The saffron party won 16 of the 20 seats, where Modi addressed public meetings. Congress was successful in only two of these constituencies. In fact, Modi wave was so strong in the state that every third youth is believed to have voted for the BJP just to see him become prime minister.

BJP’s chief ministerial candidate Vasundhara Raje admitted “there has been a big hand of Narendra Modi” in the party’s victory in Rajasthan. “People like Gujarat’s development model and want to see the similar kind of development in Rajasthan,” she said. Local Congress leaders, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, grudgingly accept Rahul Gandhi’s leadership actually marred the party’s prospects in the state.

Rahul’s public meetings and results Salumber, Khedli, Chittorgarh, Bikaner, Pushkar, Jodhpur, Banswara (BJP wins all) Churu (postponed)
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Modi’s public meetings and results
Alwar, Bandikui, Sawai Madhopur, Dudu, Banswara, Chittorgarh, Anta, Kota, Pilibanga, Bikaner, Sikar, Kuchera, Ajmer, Bhilwara, Sumerpur, Pokran (all won by BJP) Khetri (BSP), Sriganganagar (NZUP)

Another newspaper report is interesting.
The Times of India - Narendra Modi takes jibes at Congress over election debacle - PTI | Dec 8, 2013
NEW DELHI: BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi on Sunday took a jibe at Congress, saying its total seats in all the four states Delhi is less than what his party has won in one state. "The total number of seats Congress has won in all the four states today cannot even match the seats @BJP4India won in 1 state!" Modi said on Twitter.

Till the last results came in, Congress had won only a total of 74 seats in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Delhi and is leading in 55. BJP has won 151 seats in Rajasthan alone. Its tally of wins in Madhya Pradesh is 99, Chhattisgarh 21, and 31 in Delhi. "BJP leads/wins 392 of 589 seats whose results available. Great performance, winning around 66 per cent of seats. Congress shrinks, gets 23 per cent of seats," Modi said. He also congratulated MP chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Vasundhara Raje and Chhhattisgarh CM Raman Singh.
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Assembly elections 2013: It's advantage Narendra Modi as Rahul Gandhi flops yet again - TNN | Dec 9, 2013
The BJP won a three-fourth majority in Rajasthan, scored a two-third victory in Madhya Pradesh and beat back Congress in Chhattisgarh after a dingdong battle. In Delhi, only AAP prevented BJP from a clear victory, but its tally of 31 still underscored its advantage over Congress which crumbled to a measly eight seats.

Future Indications
The general elections will be held in April May 2014 now by which time and before which some notable changes will have taken place.

1. The first notable point is the difficult, tragic and traumatic events , that will affect the nation, politicians, political party, particularly the Congress party as the Hindu New Year 2013 ends at the end of March 2014. The months preceding the general elections will not be remembered happily is what should be said in the mildest tones but the warning is there.

2. The position of the Congress party in 2014 will be better than it has been in 2013. Its revised strategy will be more effective, not complacent, as it has been so far.

3. The BJP will continue to improve faster than can be imagined. But the inherent limitations of its horoscope and the threat that exists for its leaders cannot be overlooked. The BJP cannot complacently remain in the euphoria of these victories of 2013 December because in three out of these four states, it was direct bipolar contest but in states which are also its known strongholds. Rest of India , leaving states like Gujarat, are it slippery grounds.

4. The challenge of a Third Front will be real with the unconcealed ambition of Mulayam Singh Yadav becoming visible.

We will need the horoscopes of the chiefs of regional parties and their leaders to come to a more clear and definite conclusion. That is being done by someone and we hope we will get them soon enough, ,long before the announcement of general elections of 2014. Analysis of all that will be made later and predictions given.
( Dec 9 2013)

Appendix
Reactions to the defeat of the Congress party :””the days of buying votes with taxpayer money are coming to an end. Politicians have to learn to taper doles, or else they will be destroying the seedcorn of future growth and their own legitimacy. But it is unlikely that any party will acknowledge this reality because it needs honesty in understanding why doles are ultimately self-defeating for good politics to drive good economics.

FIRSTPOST
Firstpost Politics Verdict 2013: The rise and fall of Sonia’s Dole-onomics - by R Jagannathan Dec 9, 2013 )

The Times of India
Congress routed
Dec 9, 2013, 12.07 AM IST
Going by the rout undergone by Congress across at least three out of four states where assembly poll results were announced yesterday, with the exception of a reasonably strong showing in Chhattisgarh, Congress may have fundamentally misread the meaning of mandates in its favour in 2004 and 2009 general elections. It took them to mean a rejection of `India shining` and by extension the India growth story, therefore a licence to continue with politics in the old mould. This consists of juggling a calculus based on carving up the electorate into ever finer slices based on caste, communal or regional identity; then throwing calibrated freebies at each, while playing on a politics of grievances rather than of aspiration.

Voters do not want just freebies, they want to see the economy growing, new manufacturing  enterprises emerging, jobs being created. The ogre called inflation, which the UPA government has allowed to rage untamed, has undermined the nation`s capacity to attain all of these things.