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Arun Shourie, a well known investigative journalist of his journalistic days likened the present condition of the Bharatiya Janta Party or BJP to a kati patang, or a runaway kite which has no control over its own direction in the sky as the thread that controlled it got snapped. This tirade of Shourie caught people's imagination because it is a popular song of a Bollywood film where a love-stricken girl likens her condition to a kati patang.
After its dismal performance in the general elections of May 2009, BJP finds itself involved in its own internal squabbles. Media has called it 'Withering Lotus'. The party is seen floundering amidst ego clashes and unclear hierarchy. Many feel it might be an indication of the saffron meltdown.
Those who know in what miserable plight the Congress party was in 1969 with its squabbles and Indira Gandhi leading it to a split and a much talked of election between V. V. Giri and Sanjeeva Reddy for the post of the President of India, should not utter doomsday predictions for BJP.
In these days of television discussion and a powerful print media, there is no doubt that the crisis of the BJP has been magnified beyond proportions. Like any political party that has lost back to back elections and is moving from one generation to other, it is natural to be in this phase.
Astrological Reasoning
Using the logic that a party is a body, and that it is in trouble, I have tried to apply the Jataka principles to see what ails the BJP. The astrological reasons can be seen easily.
The party's foundation horoscope of 6th April 1980/11.45 hrs/Delhi gives it a Gemini lagna with lagna lord in ninth house of bhagya, but conjoined with Ketu. Not a single benefic is in kendra. Instead of a malefic in the sixth house, there is a weak Moon there. What puzzles astrologers is how and why did BJP form itself with such planetary positions as Saturn, Jupiter, Mars and Rahu in the third house and a debilitated Moon in the sixth house.
With a cluster of four retrograde planets in third, COMMUNICATION has always been 'THE ISSUE' with BJP. Whether their strong stand of communicating in Hindi when Atal Behari Vajpayee delivers his famous UNESCO address, or their inter-party communication 'hassles', or the intra-party verbosity leading to rifts amongst the members.
Mangal-Guru-Shani yoga, as per classics make a person lean bodied, cruel, wicked, bereft of friends, conceited and favoured by the ruler. It is interesting to note that BJP body does show the fructification of this yoga.
The dasha sequence too has not been helpful starting with Mercury, then Ketu and now Venus. Venus mahadasha since 1992 has been a mixed bag for the party being 5th lord and 12th lord, but strongly placed in 12th in own house. The dasha opened with a loss of image due to destruction of the Babri Mosque in 1992 which led to nationwide rioting. In the same dasha, however, BJP also ruled for a record of six years from 1998 to 2004.
Owing to the difficult planetary placements, the party has wrestled with issues of identity and ideology for nearly three decades of its existence. But at this point of time, it seems in more disarray than ever.
Why is BJP like a kati patang now? It is a classical case of eruption of disease which was dormant so far. Sri K.N. Rao has hinted on how to identify the periods of distress.
To understand this, mark these two in the chart:
a) The lord of the sixty fourth navamsha (Venus)
b) The lord of twenty second dreshkan (Mercury)
We can see why the present dasha has proved to be a period of ailment for BJP. BJP is running the mahadasha of Venus, the 64th navamsha lord and antar dasha of Mercury, the 22nd dreshkona lord.
Mercury as lagna lord in the ninth house represents ideology and religion, which the party stands for. This itself became the cause of party's debacle in the last Lok Sabha Polls. 22nd dreshkona lord Mercury with Ketu kept it in a confused state of mind.
Mercury is also a weak fourth lord. It shows that the mass support is weak and Mercury could not save the party from the defeat in Lok Sabha polls. In fact, further factionalism and loss of 'sukh' was been observed in the days to come.
Tenth lord Jupiter is weak in transit, being debilitated with Rahu in 8th house, 12th from the antarnath Mercury. End of party president Rajnath Singh's tenure has given rise to a war of succession.
Stubborn retrograde malefics in third house also represent difficulties with neighbours. We see a long dead Jinnah tossing in his grave, once again, and this time pulling Jaswant Singh out of the party. Last time when Jinnah's ghost troubled BJP was in 2005, when Advani had to quit as party chief. The malefics in third house lead the 'disciplined' party to a 'self-destruct' mode. From the bhavat bhavam of eighth house, tumble down the neighbourly skeletons and the party is caught in the mess.
Venus-Mercury-Moon dasha from the last week of June to mid-September adds fuel to fire. Mercury-Moon connections are fated periods, I would say 'mind-boggling' in the literal sense. Moon is the debilitated 2nd lord of speech in 6th house of disputes. Pratyantar of Moon brings forth mental and physical sickness of the party. Moon's dasha, up to mid September 2009, would show more such convulsions and cracklings in the party.
Confirming through Char Dasha We can see how this is confirmed by the
Char Dasha of Pisces from 2004 to 2011. AK Saturn is in sixth house from rashi dasha with Rahu, GK Jupiter and sixth lord Mars, apparently a dasha of ailments. BJP lost the 2004 elections and later 2009 elections.
Antar dasha of Capricorn from 6 July 2009 to 4 February 2010 shows a focussed period of eruption of disease. From Capricorn, AK Saturn falls in the eighth house with Rahu and GK Jupiter and we see the chronic ailment surface.
Coming Dashas
Next pratyantar of Mars, the sixth and eleventh lord, maintains the connection with houses of sickness. We do not expect improvement from infightings; rather the disputes might intensify, given the martian fighting spirit. However, the strength to fight is also seen with strongly positioned mars, and its dispositor Sun placed in 10th house.
We may see some leadership emerging in this period of Mars. Mars aspects Moon in sixth house, lagna lord Mercury in the ninth and third lord Sun in the tenth house of simhasan. We might see the party making intense efforts (3rd house) to select (sixth house) a capable leader (tenth house).
Rahu pratyantar follows who is also conjunct Mars and afflicts navamsha lagna with antarnath Mercury. The signs of sickness would still be visible in this period.
Somewhat better party position can be seen in Jupiter's pratyantar, the 10th lord who would also be transiting now in Aquarius in the ninth house over lagna lord. This will also bring a temporary stability in the party regarding leadership. Next antardasha of Ketu will be a dasha chhidra governed by the planet of confusion and disillusionment. It can call for major changes and realignments in the party. BJP has been an 'ideology-based' party. Ketu period might intensify the challenges on this issue, being in the ninth house of Dharma. BJP will have to chalk out new policy matters for its internal cohesion.
In the coming mahadasha of Sun from April 2012, we could see a new BJP emerging with a new leadership. Sun is the third lord, digbali and strong in tenth house of power, in parivartan with tenth lord Jupiter. Sun is in the ninth house of bhagya in Navamsha. This does indicate that BJP will rise yet again, and would not be 'reduced to rubble' as the events indicate and journalists predict. With Sun showing light to wisdom of Jupiter, the party will adopt a more appropriate 'rightwing approach' and pave the path to an effective polity, whether in ruling party or in opposition.
In Sun's dasha BJP will be out of the grip of 64th navamsha and 22nd dreshkan lordships. It will also find its lost leadership and direction with a digbali Sun in 10th house and will not remain a Kati Patang any more.
(10 September 2009)
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