IS ARAB POLICY OF USA IN TATTERS?

Nearly ten years ago when I wrote (in the Star Teller and reproduced in the Journal of Astrology in Jan-March 2002 issue) on the basis of the horoscope of USA I use, given here, that the years of decline of USA had begun, I had not imagined that the revolutionary movements in west Asia for democracies and fall of autocracies would lead to a swing away from US patronized autocracies and revolt against them. It is appearing to be the gain of Iran now, the Shia power, in Sunni dominated Arab world. (Please refer to : USA, The Declining Years and What awaits Saudia Arabia )

In the meantime an article  (Think Again: American Decline This time it's for real. BY Gideon Rachman - January-February 2011 (http://www.foreignpolicy.com ) interested me though the writer here emphasizes that the rise of China leads to the real and irrecoverable loss for USA and he concludes thus: “The United States still has formidable strengths. Its economy will eventually recover. Its military has a global presence and a technological edge that no other country can yet match. But America will never again experience the global dominance it enjoyed in the 17 years between the Soviet Union's collapse in 1991 and the financial crisis of 2008. Those days are over".

USA’s decline is visible in two ways: Decline because of its keen economic competition with China which GIDEON RACHMAN points out and now, decline of its influence in the Arab and Maghreb nations. Now has come an end to the sordid chapter of US foreign policy in the Arab and Maghreb world. History is unfolding as president Barack Obama said, and it is not a cliché any more. The two essential elements of this policy, safety and preservation of Israel and hold over the oil resources (though it lost Iran), get threatened at once. Yet, no one can say what will emerge out of the present chaos when two revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt may lead to counter revolutions while revolutions in other countries from violent one in Libya to less violent ones in Bahrain etc. have created a very hazy and uncertain picture.

To say that democracy alone is an answer may be questioned by some Indians and Asians who have seen dynasties dominating like that of Nehru family in India along with the families of many other politicians like Karunanidhi in Tamilnadu (India) and the children of well known politicians, like Scindias, Pilots, Abdullahs creating tiny dynastic dominance in our democratic set up. 

In Sri Lanka it is the Bandarnaike family, in Pakistan Bhuttos, in Indonesia it is Sukarno and one go on citing instances. Along with there are rumors of some families amassing wealth and depositing money in foreign, particularly Swiss banks.

What then is an ideal form of government? We may not have the oppression of autocrats but we have massive corruption which is oppressive.

In discussing the news about the Arab world our limitations has been, as I have pointed out many times, all that we know about happenings in west Asia is from Anglo American sources which may not be objective.

There are   stories of Gaddafi’s millions deposited in the banks of western counties in the Anglo American press and Gaddafi has challenged them to give proof. Whom should we believe? Cold war is over but the prejudiced version of news about different regions of the world carries with it the lack of objectivity of the cold war days. See the slanted news about Russia and Putin. USA never promoted democracies in the Arab world, supported autocrats in pursuit of its policies to preserve its interests, promoted wars in this region particularly the Iran-Iraq war. Now it spreads stories against Iran lost in 1979 after the fall of Shah of Iran through whom it suppressed democracy in Iran when Mohammad Mosaddeq was overthrown through CIA in 1952-53.

What will USA do now?

As I had said nearly ten years ago when the Moon dasha of USA began and it interfered in Muslim countries, as Moon in the seventh house had to do. It is soon entering the dasha of Mars aspecting Saturn, the seventh lord of the horoscope. There is every chance of USA supporting aggressively, the forces in the Arab world which it will deem will promote its interest and protect both Israel and its own oil interests democracy or no democracy.

USA cannot decline totally for many decades. China is rising as its nemesis. The India US friendship reversing the Nehruvian policy is a change, may be a gain also for USA.

But now the Arab world creates a situation more confusing. US dominance will in any case dwindle. The fear of rise of Islamist forces through democratic elections will create an area of world tension for which the world has to be prepared now.

It almost appears now that Samuel Huntington’s theory of clash of civilizations is crystallizing into shape.

What I wrote in the Star Teller in 2001 which was reproduced in 2002 Jan-March issue of Journal of Astrology is reproduced here:

“Moon-Moon beginning 13 August 2001. There will be no end to the fight that has begun even after the Afghan war is over. ........It will go on like this till the antardasha is over Saturn ending 13 August 2007).

Sometime towards the end of 2007, when Saturn will have crossed Magha nakshatra in Simha, the war will begin to show some visible abatement. But Rahu will take some more years to enter Dhanu to give to USA a breather. The final experience of it all for USA will be much worse than its Vietnamese misadventure (1956-74).

What will be the likely consequences of all this?? Drawable inferences are.

1. USA’s position as a super power in a unipolar world will have suffered its worst damage. China in the meantime will begin to rise to occupy position as the most dreaded world power.

2. World view of Islam as a religion will undergo a very unfavorable change as has been said by a US Senator thus” ‘There is no such thing as peaceful Islam,’’ Lind said. ‘‘Islamics cannot fit into an America in which the first loyalty is to the American Constitution”

3. What will be the assessment made of USA being described as world’s biggest terrorist state is left to the readers to judge.

Read what Chomsky has to say.

Kolkata, Oct. 22. (PTI): Noted thinker Noam Chomsky today said India would gain “nothing” by supporting the US offensive in Afghanistan but get a “kick in the face” if it came in the way of America’s interests. Describing the US as the “world’s biggest terrorist State”, the self-confessed anarchist said following the September 11 attacks in his country, it was carrying on a “worse” kind of terrorism on Afghanistan.”

The Hindu News Update as at 22.30 hrs. (IST) on November 22, 2001

As the Moon mahadasha will begin to career towards its end, USA attacking terrorists which it has identified with many Muslim nations and getting attacked not by them only by others whom it has not included on its list of "rogue" nations, will learn the art of half-bending with half humility, the sheen of its super power arrogance getting worn off. History moves in cycles. Nations, like individuals have their rise and fall like all known empires recorded in history. In the middle of the twentieth century world witnessed the collapse of imperial powers when Hitler shook them to their foundations. USA jumped into international arena in a big way during the First World War and President Wilson imposed Versailles Treaty. Since then, USA has been a potent force in world, more so after the Second World War, when in the cold war days, it encircled USSR through its policy of containment of communism.

All that is being said against Muslim fundamentalists by USA is what could be said against the two super powers of that era of cold war. (Jan-March 2002 issue of the Journal of Astrology)

The decline hinted at then is now beginning to look real because:
1) The rise of China is real and the possibility of China ending up at the most powerful nation economically first and militarily later is being talked of now.

2) US influence in the Arab and Magred world is clearly on the decline.

3) In the post Mubarak era, Israel is facing the same tension as it had before the Yom Kippur war of 1973.

4) Iran is threatening to become a nuclear power.

5) Saturn Jupiter in transit is covering the two-eight axis of USA which is as bad as it is for Algiers, Yemen mainly and resembling the confusion in Egypt and Tunisia.

(1 March 2011)