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DEMOCRACY STRUGGLING TO BE BORN IN PAKISTAN
KN RAO
The chief justice of Pakistan said at a gathering at Harvard Law School in November 2008: “In Pakistan, both civilian as well as uniformed autocrats have been influencing judicial decision-making for the past six decades. Just look at what we now have: an inefficient, vulnerable, partial judiciary. And, this inefficient, vulnerable and a partial judiciary has long been keeping Pakistan from realizing her full economic growth potential.”
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Pakistan’s army represents a state within a state. Its duplicity was exposed when it was found out that both the army and ISI had given shelter to Osama bin Laden. Since the killing of Osama, army has fallen out of favor with USA which is now supporting the civilian government. Then cutting down aid to Pakistan, an army coup will be without the US support unlike all the army coups which had full support including financial support of USA. Can this support to civilian rule ensure balance of power in Pakistan? Can this create anything like a normal chain of command that will give to the civilian administration supremacy over the army?
It suits the army, after Prime Minister Gilani was asked to appear before the Supreme Court when a contempt notice was served on him, to see a judicial coup achieve what the army will have achieved as in the past. In the context of what the CJI of Pakistan has said, the December 2009 order by 17 judges of the Supreme Court for the government to write a letter to the Swiss authorities may become a prestige issue affecting and influencing of the judgment on the immunity of the president. In a democracy, no one can ask an independent judiciary, why is it insisting the Swiss account of president Zardari, who enjoys constitutional immunity, be found out when a saner, practical and rational line would have been to find out the details of Swiss accounts of all Pakistanis and wait for Zardari’s till this protective cover of immunity is withdrawn. By taking this line, CJI Chowdhury is not acting like a sagacious justice who was honored at Boston, but like a street fighter wanting to have it out, to settle a score with a president who was unwilling to get him restored to his position.
The Pakistan judiciary has a disgraceful record of legitimizing all army coups. At this juncture of Pakistan’s history, the same judiciary is doing, it is being said, what the army wants and, in that sense it is again an army coup in a legalistic garb........not legitimizing an army coup, but causing a coup to help the army.
Venusian Magic in mundane astrology
It is premature to say that democracy in Pakistan has been strengthened. Any comparison with Turkey is premature. Since 1923, Turkey had been totally under army control though outwardly a democracy, till the scenario started changing since 2000 after its mahadasha of Venus started.
1) Turkey’s horoscope (Mithuna lagna) shows a strong influence of Mars on the tenth house, fortunately with Jupiter too aspecting its own, tenth, house.
2) Such an astrological feature is absent in the horoscope of Pakistan which has greater struggle to establish strong democracy. Pakistan is trying to establish strong democracy in spite of the sinister presence of an over dominant army and the dangerous ISI. It is so because unlike Turkey, there is no Jupiterian influence on its tenth house. Pakistan is also now asserting to transform its nascent democracy into a durable, strong, and unshakable form of government. Yet, what favors it is its present mahadasha of Venus, which by its very nature, as the lord of the balancing rashi, Tula, always rectified disequilibrium in a nation. At any rate, Venus mahadasha in mundane astrology is always transformative and it is what Pakistan is passing through now and fighting to save its democracy.
3) In India, it was the Congress party which dominated at the center from 1947 to 1989 except in 1977-1980 period, but as soon as the Venus dasha started from 1989, the Congress party quaffing off a lion’s share of parliamentary seats, struggled to form government on its own parliamentary strength (it was predicted) and has been always in a coalition. Once it survived without a coalition but was still in a minority as the Narasimha Rao Congress government was (1991-96).
4) In USA the American Civil War (1961-65) came in the dasha of Venus in the first cycle of the Vimshottari dasha and in the second cycle came the end of cold war. That was historic, transformative and restorer of lost balance at home or in the international scene.
5) Like USA, the civil war between the Sri Lankan government and LTTE started in the mahadasha of Venus, and ended later. It was a transformative period for the nation.
6) Iran has entered the dasha of Venus and now watch how the transformation begins to take place in that country in this dasha. Ayatollah Khomeni’s will become a chapter of past history.
That is a different subject of research in mundane astrology, applying Vimshottari mahadasha. Yet, it can be seen that as in the case of India, in the mahadasha of Venus, fashion, beautician’s trade, prominence of women, ( Women Protection bill replacing Hudood law) spread of television channels with stronger press freedom than ever before are some of the notable features of life in Pakistan.
In any case, any comparison of Pakistan with Turkey is premature because “The real issue with Turkey is that the general public have had a better life under Erdogan than under the military backed "secular" parties, who were looking to the military to rig elections in their favor and to help them ward off AKP. Once Erdogan established a loyal rural vote-bank that could sidestep this strategy the secular parties and the military have been left clueless.”
In 1999, I had made a prediction in a Hindi newspaper of a military coup in Pakistan. In October 1999, Pervez Musharraf did it. This time I am not making any such predicting but only have been repeating since 18 Nov 2011, when no such indication existed, that there was visible trouble for Zardari and the establishment in Pakistan.
Let us not forget that Gen Kayani or ISI’s Pasha met Ijaz Ahmad and never reported it to Prime Minister Gilani for three weeks. In a true democracy such an officer would have been dis- missed at once but none dare do it in Pakistan.
Then for democracy to strike roots, socio economic revolution which weakens the landed gentry of Pakistan’s Punjab which along with the army preserves its privileges, must take place. It is what happened in Turkey but after seventy nine long years. Can it happen in Pakistan in a twinkling way? Pakistan’s army has fallen out of favor with USA which is now supporting the civilian government. Can this support ensure balance of power in Pakistan? Can this create anything a normal chain of command that will give to the civilian administration supremacy over the army?
Democracy in Pakistan so far
Before examining the chances of democracy becoming strong look at the sordid record of democratic movement in Pakistan, astrologically, since the dasha of Rahu in which it was born.
1) Rahu dasha gave one PM
2) Jupiter dasha gave six PMs
3) Saturn dasha gave two PMs
4) Mercury dasha gave seven PMs
5) Ketu dasha gave four PMs
6) Venus dasha which began in December 2007 has given one PM so far, Gilani who is the longest serving prime minister of Pakistan so far.
For twenty five years out of sixty four so far, there was no prime minister.
In thirty nine years, Pakistan has had twenty one prime ministers. The average tenure of a prime minister so far has been one year and ten months.
Then read an extract from an article. From an article:
PAKISTAN TODAY - 19 Jan 2012 - The system must go on By: Dr Taimur-ul-Hassan
Throughout the 1950s, two bureaucrats, Ghulam Mohammed and Iskander Mirza, brazenly abused their powers as head of state to make or break governments. In April 1953, Ghulam Mohammed set an unfortunate precedent when, citing the government’s failure to resolve ‘the difficulties facing the country’, dismissed Khwaja Nazimuddin and installed Bogra in his place. When Bogra responded by trying to limit the Governor General’s power, Ghulam Mohammed dismissed him too. Add to this list, the toppled governments of Benazir Bhutto twice and Nawaz Sharif twice and one gets a pretty good idea of the state of democracy in this ill-starred country.”
Against this background, with a judiciary said to be hostile to president Zardari and the PPP led coalition, for Pakistan the choice is between ousting a government said to be corrupt and the greater and urgent need to strengthen democracy. In a scale of priorities, strengthening democracy and not upsetting the present government should come first and, later waging a concerted fight against corruption can be taken up, remembering that in Asian democracies, the definition of democracy should be “for the oligarchy by the oligarchy for the people”, be it India, be in Pakistan or any other country in Asia.
Yet, given a chance to strengthen democracy, it should not be missed as this form of government, (remembering that corruption is a twin of democracy in Asian countries), is still the best.'But then what will happen on 24 January when the Memogate case will come up for hearing with Mars retrograding next day, January 25? , Mansoor Ijaz will pour out his venom against the Zardari government and tilt the balance in favor of the army.
Is it a justiciable case at all, (an unsigned memo,) and how is an inconvenient question for the Pak judiciary. To all appearances, it is a fight for reputation, stability and power struggle between the army and government into which the judiciary has been brain stormed to intervene.
Mars will retrograde from January 24, 2012.
Survival of democracy and its getting strengthened is a greater priority for Pakistan but the contempt case is coming up for hearing when Pakistan will be about to enter Ketu Pratyantar dasha (Ketu is in the eighth house) in the antardasha of Sun in the mahadasha of Venus, tilting the balance against the Zardari government.
Over all the position of Zardari and the PPP led coalition is weaker but democracy is surviving in Pakistan in the mahadasha of Venus and the army becoming weaker as in Turkey.
(22 Jan 2012)